Economists lowered the growth outlook for Singapore and Hong Kong in the second half of this year on increased uncertainties from U.S. President Donald Trump imposing higher tariffs on China¡¯s exports, according to the median of a Bloomberg survey.
Singapore¡¯s growth is likely to slow in the third and fourth quarters at 1.3% and 1.6%, the survey showed. In comparison, growth in the first two quarters is estimated at 4.1% and 3.9% ¡ª raised from 3.5% for each period from the December survey. The annual outlook stayed the same at 2.6% though analysts are warning of risks.
"The full-year outlook faces considerable downside risks, especially from rising geopolitical tensions due to higher tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0,¡± said Han Teng Chua, senior economist at DBS Bank.
Singapore and Hong Kong are among the most exposed to China¡¯s economy via commodity and trade links.
Hong Kong¡¯s growth outlook was cut by economists for the last two quarters of the year to 2.6% and 2.4% from 3.2% and 3.1% previously, according to the survey. Forecasts for the first two quarters were raised by almost 0.5 percentage points to 1.7% and 1.8%.
The government estimates 2025 growth at 2% to 3% and Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics expects the economy to expand near the lower end of the official projection.
"That would mark a second straight year of slowing growth,¡± Zhu said. "The risks are tilted to the downside due to China¡¯s weak demand and escalation in the U.S.-China tensions during the second Trump term.¡±
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